2025_03_23
Less aerosols cause global warming in the past 2 decades
Qing-Bin Lu from the University of Waterloo (Canada) posted a very interesting paper here; the paper has not yet been peer reviewed.
Based on observational data, he shows that during the last 2 decades there is a positive trend in the upper stratospheric temperature (UST), as well in the Antarctica as in the Artic; no such trend can be found in the non-polar regions. One should remember that climate models predict a cooling caused by the emissions of CO2 and other green house gases, and indeed, this cooling has been observed before 2002. Surface temperatures are cooling in the Antarctica since 2022, and in the Arctic since 2016.
Here the graph showing that aerosols are decreasing after reaching a peak in the 1970's.
So the warming in the upper stratosphere are an indicator of a decreasing warming effect of the atmospheric GHG, and the warming effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 might be minor compared to that of the decreasing aerosol load..
A very interesting paper, which takes some time to read carefully.
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